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Additional Grocery Store Needed In Prescott Valley

27,500- That is a conservative estimate of the number of current residents in the Prescott Valley trade area that drive at least 15 minutes, one way, to get to a grocery store.

The Town of Prescott Valley, Arizona is the largest and fastest growing community in Yavapai County, yet is woefully underserved by the current grocers serving Prescott Valley residents and the surrounding communities within the trade area. An analysis of national/regional grocery square footage per capita shows a massive disparity locally and indicates that Prescott Valley is also below average within the State of Arizona and neighboring states, when compared to similarly sized rural communities. Locally, the City of Prescott has double the amount of physical grocery store locations and nearly double the amount of square feet per capita, despite its smaller population. Regionally, within the evaluated communities, the average square feet per capita is 6.73, which Prescott Valley is well below.
Community Grocery Square Feet Per Capita

July 2018 US Census Population Estimate

Prescott Valley, AZ 4.48 45,751
Prescott, AZ 8.41 43,313
Sierra Vista, AZ 7.00 44,420
Bullhead City, AZ 5.29 40,421
Flagstaff, AZ 5.64 73,964
Farmington, NM 7.40 45,857
Grand Junction, CO 8.86 63,374

The Prescott Valley trade area, as defined by the Phoenix-based firm Applied Economics, has experienced rapid population growth over the past 10 years, with the majority of that growth taking place in Prescott Valley and points southeast of Prescott Valley, within the trade area. The trade area’s current population is approximately 155,000 residents. The unincorporated areas surrounding Prescott Valley, extending to the southeastern boundary of the trade area (near the SR 69/I-17 Interchange) and the unincorporated areas surrounding Prescott, extending to the northwestern edge of the trade area (near the interchange of SR 89 and I-40), show similar growth over the past 10 years with more growth skewed toward areas near Prescott Valley and the southeastern trade area. Completed homes over the past 10 years in Prescott Valley proper shows considerable growth, exceeding Prescott’s growth by a ratio of 1.6:1.
Completed Single Family Homes in Prescott Valley Trade Area 2009-2019
Community Number of Completed Residences
Prescott Valley 3,182
Prescott 1,831
SE Trade Area 970
NW Trade Area 914

While the lower population growth in and surrounding Prescott is supported by the 8 existing grocery locations in the City of Prescott, there are large areas on the northern and eastern edges of Prescott Valley and extending to the trade area boundaries that are underserved by the local grocery market. For these residents, trips to one of Prescott Valley’s 4 existing grocery stores take a minimum of 15 minutes each way despite a substantial existing population. As indicated earlier, at least 27,500 residents in Prescott Valley and the southeastern trade area must drive at least 15 minutes, one way, to get to a grocery store.

While the number of residents in the underserved areas in and surrounding Prescott Valley already demonstrates the need for an additional grocery store, projected population growth by the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity[1] show Prescott Valley will remain the largest community in the County and the population gap with Prescott will continue to widen at roughly the same pace as the previous 10 years. Given those projections, it is safe to assume that future housing growth in Prescott Valley and the unincorporated areas surrounding the Town will mirror the previous 10 years and continue to outpace Prescott and the unincorporated areas surrounding the City. Indeed, Prescott Valley has already approved and is issuing permits for the new Jasper subdivision that will see 3700 single family homes at full build out. While the current population can already sustain a new grocery location in an underserved area of Prescott Valley, future growth will only increase sales and will be skewed toward Prescott Valley and the southeastern boundaries of the trade area.

Anecdotally, the need for a new grocery store is painfully clear. Every grocery store in Town is packed at almost any time of the day. This fact is experienced both by Town staff as well as residents who complain to our elected officials on an almost daily basis about the need for an additional store. According to Prescott Valley Mayor Kell Palguta, a need for a new grocery store in Town is the most frequent complaint/request he fields from residents. Prescott Valley is growing and while retail always follows the rooftops, the grocery industry has failed to keep pace with the growth of rooftops in the Town and surrounding unincorporated areas. While it is understood that other communities in major metro markets grow at a faster pace than Prescott Valley, that should not be to the detriment of our residents, particularly when similarly sized rural markets throughout the state provide a higher level of service to their residents as it relates to grocery availability. The time for a new grocery location in Prescott Valley is now.

There are several properties in underserved areas of Prescott Valley that would support a grocery store from a market-based perspective. Please click here for a more detailed overview of potential properties and additional supporting documentation including a map of the Prescott Valley trade area and analysis of new home construction over the past 10 years. Please contact Ben Hooper, Economic Development Coordinator for the Town of Prescott Valley at 928-759-3106 or if you would like additional information to explore the possibility of a new grocery store/commercial development in Prescott Valley.